Say no to mendicant survivorship bias

Sociology in the US likely has a significant bias in all polls concerning Trump, just like it was happening before his victory in 2016.

Do you remember these highly credentialed experts? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Those who support him may often consider their position disfavoured by pollsters and thus keep it in secrecy till elections. The same mechanism is skewing all polls in Ukraine, where folks tend to avoid direct answers about whether they prefer peace talks instead of forever war, strongly favoured by Zelensky.

Hence all polls that show tie or slight Harris’ gain might better be discussed with such a skewing tendency in mind.

More useful indicators could be found in betting markets, where people are voting with their money, for their bias can’t be mendicant.

Whoever is destined to win, he or she should encourage NASA and private space companies to explore (crypto)mining on Ceres.

Disclaimer incoming: I’m not an American citizen and as such ain’t eligible to vote, but in case I’d be able to, I’d have chosen the third option decisively, i.e., RFK Jr & Nicole, if only they had not quit the race. Otherwise, I would abstain or support Stein, because of her anti-warmongering stance.