I recommend you to compare the dynamics of nutrients inside the ecosystem of this war before making such a hilarious statements next time.

First of all, April 1 should be proudly designated as the International Day of Sanctions against Russia.

Second, I suspect that no one among bureaucrats in corresponding Ukrainian agencies managed to produce even a single leaflet concerning connections between long-view economy and military strategy. Unlike father of the bloke whom Putin recently applied as a new Minister of Defense. Therefore, Andrei Belousov’s activity in defense sector should be discussed as a probable attempt of implementation of programs that his father sought to integrate into the Soviet society. This already provides an interesting point of divergence from the path dependence effect in Russia, so enamoured by Biden, Blinken, and their propaganda workers.

Mobilization in Russia is greatly quieted down. Borders aren’t locked for males, although restrictions concerning travels abroad for state workers and bureaucrats tend to strengthen with each successive year. I predict that, at some point, practice of issuing and prolongation of the foreign passports will be curted further by Russia for men of conscript age living abroad, but not totally stopped, like Ukraine has recently done. Annexed Donbass provinces, as usual, provide a graphic exception: nullum crimen sine lege, in the sense of total lawlessness toward males both conscripted and catched after desertion. Recently, border control zone with regulated access has been reinstated (for reasons moot) between DPR/LPR and Russia proper.

For Ukrainians, money means not so much and talks not so eloquently, because the great majority of them is drafted, often brutally, while Ukrainian border service turned into a Prohibition-level speakeasy.

A small part receives up to USD2.5K per month, though more often significantly less, and those who are relieved from the frontline due to ill health and injuries (but not from AFU, of course!) receive as little as USD15 per month. One may ask whether Western aid could be distributed with a little skew toward their needs.

How could it be concluded that Russia has already lost the (second part of) the war, I’m unable to fathom. The first part, before the Istanbul talks sabotaged by Johnson, it surely lost with a bang, though. But since then we saw an example of military evolution in action, and Russians clearly turned the table. The greatest mistake of Zelensky and his cronies was to discard wise recommendations to incur Ukrainian losses after Kherson.