Might be, I'm far from thinking about myself as an inerrant expert.
The military history, indeed, shows that almost nobody who tried to defend the Crimea was able to keep it against advancing armies due to presence of two main supply bottlenecks. But then again, nobody tried to bridge the Kerch Passage successfully, even Hitler, till modern technology allowed it. Nobody tried to keep a multi-year stand against besiegers, relying strictly upon aerial supply routes, till Syrian armed forces sustained it a few times in a row, most famously at Deir ez-Zor.
Hence, Crimean supply bottlenecks problem is likely to produce a good amount of ass pains for Russians, but it's far from unsolvable in our epoch when, to give one example, the last full-scale amphibious invasion operation dates to more than 70 years ago in Korea.
The unprecedented Long Peace in Europe after WWII (excluding wars of the breakup of Yugoslavia) resulted in great degradation of military art and materiel reserves on both sides of the former Iron Curtain, but moreso on the Western. I don't want to say that war has already bogged down, I simply find it slightly jarring for Ukrainians to be stalled from their long-announced offensive for all winter long with forces of just one PMC in one small city that lost the gross part of its strategic value already after the Balaklea-Izyum counterstrike.
Both sides of this strange war tend to implement the most blood-costly and the least effective decisions possible after the collapse of Istanbul peace talks initiative. There is a strong flavor of flower war here, as I had been saying more than once.
And if Russian forces have hopelessly painted themselves into a corner of Bakhmut, Uhledar, or Maryinka meatgrinders, this by itself doesn’t preclude analogous death marches by ZSU in the future, should Ukrainians start an offensive through steppes of Zaporizhzhya or urban redoubts of Donetsk, Horlovka, Severodonetsk, or Lysyschansk. Commanders are worth one another.
tl;dr = I think the most viable strategy for a man drafted in the Ukraine war is as follows: try to get all your posthumous medals in advance.
