I understand. China, for purposes of comparison, has probably the longest browsing history of dynastic cycles, empires forming and dissolving, warring states clashing, slashing and burning; some kind of imperial gene (necessarily selfish), that had won once under Qin and subsequently became dominant, promotes self-reorganization via translatio imperii after every fall. So I don’t think that secessions of such kind could be permanent all the same.

The next Kondratiev wave is on the rise, though, hence regime of oscillations could possibly switch under noise-induced socioeconomical transition in times of catastrophe.

Prigogine could have helped Russia. Ilya Prigogine instead of Evgenii from Wagner. However I strongly suspect that inside Kremlin think tanks hardly anybody had heard his name.